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Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability 18%−4
24-hour volume$71k
Total volume$78k
Liquidity$15k
Resolves31 Oct 2026

Why it moved: +4 points at 08:29 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: From Morocco to South Africa, Israel election watched closely across Africa — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?
0%50%100%18%9 Oct, 13:21 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now18%
16 Oct, 04:01 UTC18%
16 Oct, 03:22 UTC21%
16 Oct, 02:48 UTC22%
16 Oct, 01:09 UTC21%
15 Oct, 23:15 UTC22%
15 Oct, 21:34 UTC18%
15 Oct, 19:35 UTC19%
15 Oct, 18:34 UTC19%
15 Oct, 18:27 UTC19%
15 Oct, 12:08 UTC21%
15 Oct, 11:53 UTC20%
15 Oct, 11:13 UTC21%
15 Oct, 09:50 UTC22%
15 Oct, 08:42 UTC22%
15 Oct, 08:29 UTC22%
11 Oct, 20:53 UTC18%
11 Oct, 20:27 UTC18%
11 Oct, 19:52 UTC19%
11 Oct, 19:24 UTC19%
11 Oct, 18:07 UTC19%
11 Oct, 17:57 UTC18%
11 Oct, 16:06 UTC19%
11 Oct, 15:58 UTC19%
11 Oct, 14:42 UTC18%
11 Oct, 13:51 UTC19%
11 Oct, 12:22 UTC19%
11 Oct, 11:12 UTC20%
11 Oct, 10:48 UTC19%
11 Oct, 10:27 UTC19%
11 Oct, 09:52 UTC19%
11 Oct, 09:27 UTC20%
11 Oct, 08:43 UTC20%
11 Oct, 08:13 UTC21%
11 Oct, 03:13 UTC21%
11 Oct, 02:30 UTC22%
11 Oct, 02:24 UTC22%
11 Oct, 01:46 UTC22%
11 Oct, 01:16 UTC22%
11 Oct, 00:57 UTC22%
11 Oct, 00:20 UTC25%
10 Oct, 23:43 UTC24%
10 Oct, 23:11 UTC24%
10 Oct, 21:54 UTC22%
10 Oct, 21:06 UTC20%
10 Oct, 20:53 UTC24%
10 Oct, 20:28 UTC22%
10 Oct, 19:56 UTC21%
10 Oct, 19:18 UTC21%
10 Oct, 18:20 UTC21%
10 Oct, 17:55 UTC22%
10 Oct, 17:27 UTC23%
10 Oct, 16:48 UTC22%
10 Oct, 16:22 UTC25%
10 Oct, 15:41 UTC24%
10 Oct, 15:28 UTC21%
10 Oct, 14:20 UTC21%
10 Oct, 13:52 UTC21%
10 Oct, 13:28 UTC21%
9 Oct, 13:21 UTC19%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Israel launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile that directly hits Syrian territory by 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time on October 31, 2026. It resolves to No if no such qualifying action occurs within that timeframe, including cases where munitions are intercepted before impact.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 18%
  • No 82%

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