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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

Implied probability 8%−2
24-hour volume$12k
Total volume$760k
Liquidity$37k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
0%50%100%8%21 Sept, 07:46 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now8%
23 Sept, 15:54 UTC8%
23 Sept, 13:56 UTC7%
23 Sept, 13:28 UTC8%
23 Sept, 12:39 UTC7%
23 Sept, 12:14 UTC8%
23 Sept, 11:51 UTC7%
23 Sept, 10:24 UTC8%
23 Sept, 03:49 UTC7%
23 Sept, 03:10 UTC8%
22 Sept, 23:28 UTC9%
22 Sept, 20:20 UTC11%
22 Sept, 19:28 UTC10%
22 Sept, 18:58 UTC11%
22 Sept, 18:15 UTC11%
22 Sept, 16:46 UTC10%
22 Sept, 15:48 UTC8%
22 Sept, 14:57 UTC9%
22 Sept, 11:50 UTC11%
22 Sept, 11:00 UTC11%
22 Sept, 07:47 UTC11%
21 Sept, 07:46 UTC12%

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Iran and Oman both announce acceptance of a specific diplomatic agreement regarding shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by September 30 at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must clearly confirm acceptance of the same deal, not just express support or discuss ongoing negotiations. Readers often mistake general peace talks or separate policy statements for a qualifying joint agreement.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 8%
  • No 93%

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