Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 13:56 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 12:39 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 03:49 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 03:10 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Sept, 23:28 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Sept, 20:20 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 16:46 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Sept, 11:50 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 11:00 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 07:47 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 07:46 UTC | 12% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran and Oman both announce acceptance of a specific diplomatic agreement regarding shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by September 30 at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must clearly confirm acceptance of the same deal, not just express support or discuss ongoing negotiations. Readers often mistake general peace talks or separate policy statements for a qualifying joint agreement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 93%
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