Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?
Implied probability 7%
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$23k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 22:47 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if federal authorities formally charge or indict Ilhan Omar by 11:59 PM ET on October 31. The outcome is No if no such official action occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake a home raid for a formal charge, but only an indictment or official charging document counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%
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