Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 32% |
| 13 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 32% |
| 13 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 32% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 33% |
| 12 Oct, 17:12 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 36% |
| 12 Oct, 01:31 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 34% |
| 11 Oct, 22:08 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 31% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 29% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 28% |
| 11 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 30% |
| 11 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 29% |
| 11 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 29% |
| 11 Oct, 10:05 UTC | 30% |
| 11 Oct, 09:08 UTC | 29% |
| 11 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 30% |
| 10 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Oct, 04:40 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Oct, 01:06 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 23:59 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 30% |
| 9 Oct, 21:23 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 27% |
| 9 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 32% |
| 9 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 31% |
| 9 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 31% |
| 9 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 30% |
| 9 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 30% |
| 9 Oct, 11:29 UTC | 31% |
| 9 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 31% |
| 9 Oct, 10:08 UTC | 32% |
| 9 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 31% |
| 9 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 31% |
| 9 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 31% |
| 9 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 26% |
| 9 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 06:25 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 27% |
| 9 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 30% |
| 9 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 29% |
| 7 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Oct, 22:12 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 38% |
| 7 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 19:13 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 35% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Oct, 14:26 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Oct, 14:26 UTC | 48% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flavio Bolsonaro receives more valid votes than any other candidate from voters outside Brazil in the October 25, 2026 election. The outcome depends solely on the official vote counts reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Readers often mistake the first-round results for the final count or ignore the specific requirement that only votes cast abroad are considered.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 32%
- No 68%
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