Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-15?
The market favoured No at 56% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$298k
Total volume$303k
Liquidity$183k
Resolved15 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 15 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 100% |
| 15 Oct, 16:14 UTC | 37% |
| 15 Oct, 15:52 UTC | 36% |
| 15 Oct, 14:50 UTC | 37% |
| 15 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 38% |
| 15 Oct, 09:43 UTC | 41% |
| 14 Oct, 09:43 UTC | 44% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Olympique Lyonnais wins the match within the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time on October 15, 2026. It resolves to No if they do not win, including if the game is canceled with no make-up date. Readers often mistake the final result for the resolution criteria, but only the score at the end of regular play counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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