Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?
Why it moved: −12 points at 16:25 UTC, after TechCrunch: Trump unveils his new Super Intelligence Force — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 53% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 37% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
For the "Yes" outcome, Donald Trump or his administration must explicitly announce a specific individual as the AI czar (or future AI czar) by October 4, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement does not need to be a formal appointment, but it must clearly name the person and use the title "czar" or a derivative. Media reports, speculation, acting appointments, or mere candidate reveals do not count toward resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 38%
- No 63%
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