Will Peru win on 2026-09-26?
Why it moved: −4 points at 19:16 UTC, after The Guardian US: USMNT v Peru live – analysis and updates from international friendly in Orlando — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 20:36 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 20:04 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 19:16 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 19:16 UTC | 16% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Peru wins the match scheduled for September 26, 2026, and No otherwise. The result depends solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Readers often mistake the final whistle or extra time as the deciding factor, but only the standard regulation time counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 89%
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