Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Implied probability 6%−3
24-hour volume$49k
Total volume$409k
Liquidity$81k
Resolves28 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 08:10 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 07:05 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 9% |
| 20 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 18:45 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 11:36 UTC | 10% |
| 16 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 9% |
| 16 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 11% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Likud wins between 30 and 34 seats in the October 27, 2026 election, including any seats won as part of a joint list or merged party. It resolves to No if Likud wins fewer than 30 or more than 34 seats. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final resolution cutoff on October 31, 2027.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 95%
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