Will Israel win on 2026-09-27?
Implied probability 35%−3
24-hour volume$139k
Total volume$171k
Liquidity$787k
Resolves27 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 17:45 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Sept, 16:52 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 35% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 38% |
| 25 Sept, 12:56 UTC | 32% |
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Israel wins the match scheduled for September 27, 2026, and "No" otherwise. The result depends solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Readers often mistake the final whistle or extra time as the deciding factor, but only the standard regulation period counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 35%
- No 66%
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