Spain snap election called by October 31?
Implied probability 100%+45
24-hour volume$37k
Total volume$70k
Liquidity$22k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 15:14 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 13:39 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 07:21 UTC | 86% |
| 5 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 78% |
| 5 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 74% |
| 5 Oct, 05:43 UTC | 73% |
| 5 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 77% |
| 5 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 76% |
| 5 Oct, 03:00 UTC | 72% |
| 5 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 72% |
| 4 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 77% |
| 4 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 77% |
| 4 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 10:33 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 10:07 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 53% |
| 3 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 53% |
| 3 Oct, 22:16 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 07:38 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 56% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
A snap election must occur by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for the market to resolve to Yes. This requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or a formal scheduling of an election before the term ends. Readers often mistake general political instability or protests for the specific legal act of calling a snap election.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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