Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Implied probability 100%+42
24-hour volume$199k
Total volume$220k
Liquidity$40k
Resolves11 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Oct, 06:52 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 60% |
| 4 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Oct, 04:58 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 62% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 58% |
| 3 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 58% |
| 3 Oct, 10:29 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 58% |
| 3 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 31% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
For the Yes outcome, Max Verstappen must finish first in the race officially listed by the FIA. For the No outcome, any other driver must take that top spot according to the Final Classification. Readers often mistake the podium ceremony time or post-race disqualifications for the final result, but only the published classification counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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