Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?
Implied probability 25%+1
24-hour volume$162
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$37k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 25% |
| 12 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 25% |
| 11 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 24% |
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Arabia and the Houthis jointly announce a formal, dated agreement to stop direct fighting by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution depends on official public statements from both parties confirming acceptance of the same deal, not just unilateral pauses or informal talks.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 25%
- No 76%
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