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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?

Implied probability 97%+1
24-hour volume$81k
Total volume$529k
Liquidity$76k
Resolves16 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
0%50%100%97%6 Oct, 02:10 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now97%
13 Oct, 01:48 UTC97%
13 Oct, 01:14 UTC97%
12 Oct, 23:47 UTC97%
12 Oct, 22:33 UTC97%
12 Oct, 21:26 UTC97%
12 Oct, 20:42 UTC97%
12 Oct, 20:09 UTC97%
12 Oct, 19:56 UTC97%
12 Oct, 19:07 UTC97%
12 Oct, 18:22 UTC97%
12 Oct, 17:49 UTC97%
12 Oct, 15:54 UTC97%
12 Oct, 15:14 UTC97%
12 Oct, 14:42 UTC97%
12 Oct, 13:09 UTC97%
12 Oct, 12:49 UTC97%
12 Oct, 11:58 UTC97%
12 Oct, 11:13 UTC96%
12 Oct, 10:41 UTC96%
12 Oct, 08:15 UTC96%
12 Oct, 06:51 UTC96%
12 Oct, 05:37 UTC96%
12 Oct, 04:29 UTC96%
12 Oct, 03:37 UTC96%
12 Oct, 01:31 UTC96%
11 Oct, 23:11 UTC96%
11 Oct, 22:40 UTC96%
11 Oct, 21:56 UTC95%
11 Oct, 21:19 UTC95%
11 Oct, 20:27 UTC95%
11 Oct, 19:33 UTC96%
11 Oct, 19:24 UTC95%
11 Oct, 17:39 UTC96%
11 Oct, 16:23 UTC96%
11 Oct, 15:40 UTC96%
11 Oct, 14:42 UTC96%
11 Oct, 13:51 UTC96%
11 Oct, 12:55 UTC96%
11 Oct, 12:05 UTC96%
11 Oct, 11:20 UTC96%
11 Oct, 10:27 UTC96%
11 Oct, 09:52 UTC96%
11 Oct, 09:21 UTC95%
11 Oct, 08:31 UTC95%
11 Oct, 07:26 UTC95%
11 Oct, 06:49 UTC95%
11 Oct, 05:55 UTC96%
11 Oct, 03:51 UTC96%
11 Oct, 03:19 UTC96%
11 Oct, 01:59 UTC96%
11 Oct, 01:04 UTC96%
10 Oct, 23:55 UTC95%
10 Oct, 23:17 UTC93%
10 Oct, 22:45 UTC94%
10 Oct, 22:26 UTC92%
10 Oct, 21:54 UTC92%
10 Oct, 21:25 UTC94%
10 Oct, 20:34 UTC95%
10 Oct, 20:28 UTC94%
10 Oct, 19:56 UTC94%
10 Oct, 19:24 UTC94%
10 Oct, 18:52 UTC96%
10 Oct, 18:14 UTC97%
10 Oct, 17:08 UTC97%
10 Oct, 15:55 UTC97%
10 Oct, 13:07 UTC97%
10 Oct, 12:27 UTC97%
10 Oct, 10:24 UTC97%
10 Oct, 09:35 UTC97%
10 Oct, 09:15 UTC97%
10 Oct, 08:43 UTC97%
10 Oct, 08:11 UTC97%
10 Oct, 07:24 UTC97%
10 Oct, 01:53 UTC96%
9 Oct, 22:24 UTC95%
9 Oct, 19:37 UTC96%
9 Oct, 18:42 UTC94%
9 Oct, 18:20 UTC95%
9 Oct, 17:39 UTC94%
9 Oct, 16:37 UTC96%
9 Oct, 15:07 UTC95%
9 Oct, 14:59 UTC93%
9 Oct, 14:00 UTC93%
9 Oct, 12:16 UTC94%
9 Oct, 11:55 UTC94%
9 Oct, 10:15 UTC94%
9 Oct, 09:20 UTC94%
9 Oct, 08:35 UTC95%
9 Oct, 08:22 UTC95%
9 Oct, 07:43 UTC95%
9 Oct, 07:03 UTC94%
9 Oct, 06:56 UTC94%
9 Oct, 03:47 UTC95%
9 Oct, 02:28 UTC95%
8 Oct, 23:42 UTC95%
8 Oct, 23:03 UTC94%
8 Oct, 21:56 UTC95%
8 Oct, 21:27 UTC95%
8 Oct, 20:54 UTC94%
8 Oct, 20:05 UTC94%
8 Oct, 19:58 UTC94%
8 Oct, 18:46 UTC95%
8 Oct, 16:37 UTC96%
8 Oct, 12:31 UTC94%
8 Oct, 11:46 UTC95%
8 Oct, 11:11 UTC94%
8 Oct, 10:14 UTC94%
8 Oct, 00:21 UTC94%
7 Oct, 21:44 UTC95%
7 Oct, 20:43 UTC94%
7 Oct, 19:56 UTC94%
7 Oct, 19:27 UTC94%
7 Oct, 16:42 UTC95%
7 Oct, 12:50 UTC96%
7 Oct, 09:03 UTC95%
7 Oct, 07:20 UTC94%
7 Oct, 00:35 UTC93%
6 Oct, 09:48 UTC94%
6 Oct, 09:19 UTC94%
6 Oct, 07:45 UTC93%
6 Oct, 06:07 UTC94%
6 Oct, 04:09 UTC92%
6 Oct, 03:55 UTC93%
6 Oct, 03:16 UTC92%
6 Oct, 02:43 UTC93%
6 Oct, 02:10 UTC94%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Does the market have this right?

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What counts

The Yes outcome requires that no qualifying military action occurs between Israel and Iran through 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on October 15. A qualifying action is defined as a direct air or surface-to-surface strike impacting the terrestrial territory of either country. Readers often mistake intercepted missiles or strikes in maritime airspace for violations, but these do not count against the ceasefire.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 97%
  • No 3%

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