United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?
The market favoured No at 52% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −50 points at 20:24 UTC, after CNBC: United Airlines slashes 2026 profit outlook on fuel prices, but travelers keep booking despite higher fares — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 20 Oct, 22:31 UTC | 0% |
| 20 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 0% |
| 19 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 51% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if United Airlines reports a consolidated passenger load factor between 84% and 85% inclusive in its official Q3 earnings materials, otherwise it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the source of truth, but only the company's official financial filings or webcast transcripts count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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