US x China tariff agreement by October 31?
Why it moved: +5 points at 02:12 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: Xi in Washington, US-China Trade Truce Extended, More — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 90% |
| 24 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 89% |
| 24 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 84% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the US and China publicly announce a mutual tariff agreement by November 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if no such official announcement occurs by that deadline. Readers often mistake informal statements or unilateral actions for a valid agreement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 90%
- No 11%
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