EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?
The market favoured Yes at 66% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$25k
Total volume$34k
Liquidity$26k
Resolved1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 29 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 100% |
| 29 Sept, 08:48 UTC | 100% |
| 29 Sept, 08:27 UTC | 99% |
| 28 Sept, 08:26 UTC | 72% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an EU member state's government officially blames Russia for a physical sabotage or arson attack on its soil by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The attribution must come from that specific country's authorized representatives and cannot rely on suspicions, anonymous sources, or statements from other nations.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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