Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?
Implied probability 28%−11
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$35k
Liquidity$32k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 28% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 29% |
| 21 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Oct, 07:50 UTC | 40% |
| 20 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 40% |
| 20 Oct, 14:33 UTC | 41% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 41% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 41% |
| 20 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 41% |
| 20 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 40% |
| 20 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 39% |
| 20 Oct, 09:32 UTC | 40% |
| 20 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 38% |
| 20 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 34% |
| 18 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Oct, 13:41 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 16% |
| 17 Oct, 12:48 UTC | 16% |
| 17 Oct, 01:50 UTC | 17% |
| 16 Oct, 16:39 UTC | 16% |
| 15 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 17% |
| 15 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 15% |
| 15 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 14% |
| 15 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 14% |
| 15 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 17% |
| 15 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 19% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome triggers if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI officially states that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of Saudi Arabia in connection with his arrest. The No outcome applies if no such definitive allegation occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 28%
- No 72%
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