Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 87% |
| 14 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 87% |
| 14 Oct, 10:36 UTC | 87% |
| 14 Oct, 10:12 UTC | 87% |
| 14 Oct, 03:21 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 02:22 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 01:15 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 00:00 UTC | 86% |
| 13 Oct, 23:39 UTC | 86% |
| 13 Oct, 23:06 UTC | 86% |
| 13 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 85% |
| 13 Oct, 22:18 UTC | 85% |
| 13 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 80% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 78% |
| 13 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 78% |
| 13 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 77% |
| 13 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 73% |
| 13 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 71% |
| 13 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 69% |
| 13 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 66% |
| 13 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 68% |
| 13 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 68% |
| 13 Oct, 16:26 UTC | 67% |
| 13 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 64% |
| 13 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 14:56 UTC | 64% |
| 13 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 66% |
| 13 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 64% |
| 13 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 65% |
| 13 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 66% |
| 13 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 66% |
| 13 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 63% |
| 13 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 63% |
| 13 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 63% |
| 13 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 63% |
| 13 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 61% |
| 13 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 59% |
| 13 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 59% |
| 13 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 57% |
| 13 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 57% |
| 13 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 56% |
| 13 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 53% |
| 13 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 51% |
| 13 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 48% |
| 13 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 52% |
| 13 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 52% |
| 13 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 87% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Russia launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike at Kyiv on October 18, 2026, according to Kyiv time. The outcome depends on whether the action targets any location within Kyiv and is confirmed by a consensus of resolution sources. Readers often mistake minor strikes like FPV drones or artillery for qualifying actions, but only major air or missile attacks count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 87%
- No 13%
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