Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 5?
Implied probability 98%+13
24-hour volume$123k
Total volume$156k
Liquidity$61k
Resolves5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 5 Oct, 12:10 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Oct, 11:07 UTC | 98% |
| 5 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 98% |
| 5 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 98% |
| 5 Oct, 07:58 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Oct, 05:43 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 14:00 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 10:29 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Oct, 09:34 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Oct, 04:31 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Oct, 04:24 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Oct, 02:59 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 67% |
| 2 Oct, 23:39 UTC | 66% |
| 2 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 56% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 54% |
| 2 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 48% |
| 1 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 50% |
| 30 Sept, 10:49 UTC | 49% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart at exactly noon ET on October 5 exceeds $84,000. It resolves to No if that specific price is $84,000 or lower. Readers often mistakenly check other exchanges or different timeframes instead of the designated Binance candle.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%
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