Will Taylor Swift win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
Why it moved: +6 points at 18:58 UTC, after The Hollywood Reporter: Taylor Swift Announces New Single “Patient Zero” — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 45% |
| 22 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 45% |
| 22 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 46% |
| 22 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 45% |
| 21 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 39% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Taylor Swift is the official winner of Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. It resolves to No if she does not win or was not nominated when the nominees were announced. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the resolution deadline, but the outcome depends on the actual award result, not just her nomination status.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 45%
- No 55%
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