Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by September 30?
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$3k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 08:19 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 21:31 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 12:24 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 10:36 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 09:04 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 17:57 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 12:48 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 12:18 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump signs an executive order or similar directive that imposes mandatory requirements on private AI developers by September 30 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying action occurs within this timeframe. Readers often mistake voluntary guidance, reports, or orders regulating only federal government use as sufficient for a Yes resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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