Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$25k
Total volume$32k
Liquidity$0
Resolved11 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 04:00 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 01:33 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 10:29 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if George Russell is officially listed as first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA after the race concludes. The No outcome applies if any other driver holds that top spot in the official results. Readers often mistake the podium ceremony order or post-race disqualifications for the final result, but only the FIA's published classification counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →