Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?
Why it moved: +6 points at 10:38 UTC, after The Guardian: Russia and Ukraine resume energy strikes despite Trump warnings — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 93% |
| 15 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 93% |
| 15 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 93% |
| 15 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 93% |
| 15 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 93% |
| 15 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 93% |
| 14 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 88% |
| 14 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 87% |
| 14 Oct, 10:12 UTC | 87% |
| 14 Oct, 09:44 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 87% |
| 14 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 87% |
| 14 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 88% |
| 14 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 87% |
| 14 Oct, 05:15 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 02:01 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 86% |
| 13 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 86% |
| 13 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 87% |
| 13 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 86% |
| 13 Oct, 22:11 UTC | 86% |
| 13 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 86% |
| 13 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 85% |
| 13 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 85% |
| 13 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 85% |
| 13 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 84% |
| 13 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 84% |
| 13 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 85% |
| 13 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 85% |
| 13 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 83% |
| 13 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 83% |
| 13 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 83% |
| 13 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 84% |
| 13 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 82% |
| 13 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 84% |
| 13 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 81% |
| 13 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 83% |
| 13 Oct, 11:41 UTC | 83% |
| 13 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 79% |
| 13 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 81% |
| 13 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 80% |
| 13 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 80% |
| 13 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 82% |
| 13 Oct, 07:21 UTC | 84% |
| 13 Oct, 06:35 UTC | 82% |
| 13 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 51% |
| 13 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 60% |
| 13 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 58% |
| 13 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Oct, 04:00 UTC | 87% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile at Kyiv on October 17, 2026, regardless of whether the munitions are intercepted. It resolves to No if no such qualifying action occurs or if the event falls outside the specified timeframe. Readers often mistake minor drone strikes or artillery fire for qualifying actions, but these do not count under the resolution rules.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 93%
- No 7%
Trade this market on Polymarket →