Israel Election: Sami Abu Shehadeh Effectively Banned?
The market favoured No at 54% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −75 points at 05:38 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Arab-Israeli party leader drops election bid — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Oct, 11:35 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 06:24 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 05:38 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 05:37 UTC | 80% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Israeli authorities officially prevent Sami Abu Shehadeh from running in the 2026 election by October 27, 2026, at 11:59 PM Israel time. This requires a final ban upheld by the Supreme Court or where judicial review has expired; voluntary withdrawal does not count. Readers often mistake his decision to withdraw for an official ban.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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