Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 88%−1
24-hour volume$141
Total volume$16k
Liquidity$27k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 88% |
| 23 Sept, 20:13 UTC | 88% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 10:04 UTC | 88% |
| 23 Sept, 07:34 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 89% |
| 22 Sept, 23:41 UTC | 89% |
| 22 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 89% |
| 22 Sept, 18:45 UTC | 89% |
| 22 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 90% |
| 22 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 91% |
| 22 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 90% |
| 22 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 89% |
| 22 Sept, 12:47 UTC | 90% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 89% |
| 22 Sept, 10:43 UTC | 89% |
| 22 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 90% |
| 22 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 90% |
| 22 Sept, 08:56 UTC | 93% |
| 21 Sept, 08:47 UTC | 83% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
For Yes to resolve, Russia and Ukraine must hold an in-person diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event must involve authorized representatives acting officially or through authorized mediators, and it must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media consensus.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 88%
- No 12%
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