Ilhan Omar arrested by October 31, 2026?
Why it moved: −4 points at 23:40 UTC, after The Hill News: The Memo: Trump critics allege abuse of power as Ilhan Omar’s home is raided — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 12 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 9% |
| 12 Oct, 23:08 UTC | 13% |
| 12 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 12% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement before October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and meets specific criteria such as being criminally booked or transported to a police station. The outcome depends on actual arrest and processing, not just the issuance of warrants or charges without physical detention.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 92%
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