Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Sept, 16:47 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Sept, 15:18 UTC | 31% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 31% |
| 24 Sept, 13:17 UTC | 31% |
| 24 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Sept, 09:13 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 34% |
| 17 Sept, 21:41 UTC | 35% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran and Oman both announce acceptance of a specific diplomatic agreement managing shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must clearly confirm acceptance of the same deal, not just ongoing negotiations or separate individual policies. Readers often mistake general talks or supportive statements for a qualifying resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 33%
- No 68%
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