Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
Implied probability 88%+4
24-hour volume$147k
Total volume$185k
Liquidity$474k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 88% |
| 15 Oct, 08:16 UTC | 88% |
| 15 Oct, 07:40 UTC | 88% |
| 15 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 87% |
| 15 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 86% |
| 15 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 85% |
| 14 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 85% |
| 14 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 85% |
| 14 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 85% |
| 14 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 85% |
| 14 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 85% |
| 13 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 84% |
| 13 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 84% |
| 13 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 84% |
| 13 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 84% |
| 12 Oct, 23:08 UTC | 84% |
| 12 Oct, 19:01 UTC | 84% |
| 12 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 84% |
| 12 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 84% |
| 12 Oct, 08:01 UTC | 83% |
| 12 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 83% |
| 12 Oct, 04:10 UTC | 83% |
| 12 Oct, 03:37 UTC | 83% |
| 12 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 83% |
| 12 Oct, 01:56 UTC | 83% |
| 12 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 84% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "No Hormuz Agreement" if no diplomatic deal between the United States and Iran regarding shipping traffic is announced by November 2, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying agreement requires a clear, mutual acceptance of specific obligations from both nations, not just ongoing negotiations or separate policy statements.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 88%
- No 12%
Trade this market on Polymarket →