Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Implied probability 35%−1
24-hour volume$15k
Total volume$599k
Liquidity$212k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Oct, 09:05 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 36% |
| 18 Oct, 19:03 UTC | 34% |
| 18 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 33% |
| 17 Oct, 21:52 UTC | 35% |
| 16 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 36% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Ohio Senate special election or any subsequent run-off. The No outcome applies if the Democratic nominee, an independent, or any other candidate wins.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 35%
- No 66%
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