Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?
The market favoured Yes at 61% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$25k
Total volume$25k
Liquidity$57k
Resolved21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 21 Oct, 22:31 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 61% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Real Madrid leads at halftime, defined as the end of the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The outcome is No if they do not lead by that point or if the match is canceled without a make-up game. Readers often mistake the final match winner for the resolution criteria, but only the score at halftime matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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