Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by September 30, 2026?
Why it moved: −4 points at 12:23 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Iran Flights to UAE Halted as US Sanctions Bite Tehran’s Network — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 11:41 UTC | 16% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile at UAE territory between now and September 30, 2026. The action must be explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian soil; attacks by proxies like the Houthis do not count. Readers often mistake intercepted missiles as non-events, but they still qualify if they were launched within the timeframe.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 91%
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