Will Trump not announce his AI czar pick by December 31, 2026?
Why it moved: +15 points at 17:27 UTC, after decrypt.co: Trump Taps Jay Clayton, the SEC Chair Who Sued Ripple, to Lead AI Push — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 4% |
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Donald Trump does not explicitly name an individual as his AI czar by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to "No" if he makes such a qualifying announcement before that deadline. Readers often mistake media speculation or reports of acting officials for a valid announcement, but only explicit declarations from Trump or his administration count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 18%
- No 82%
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