US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Implied probability 91%+6
24-hour volume$92k
Total volume$491k
Liquidity$223k
Resolves30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 91% |
| 22 Sept, 11:00 UTC | 91% |
| 22 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 90% |
| 21 Sept, 21:09 UTC | 90% |
| 21 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 90% |
| 21 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 89% |
| 21 Sept, 19:41 UTC | 89% |
| 21 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 89% |
| 21 Sept, 17:43 UTC | 90% |
| 21 Sept, 17:02 UTC | 89% |
| 21 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 88% |
| 21 Sept, 15:29 UTC | 87% |
| 21 Sept, 14:55 UTC | 85% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 85% |
| 21 Sept, 07:14 UTC | 84% |
| 21 Sept, 06:10 UTC | 83% |
| 21 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 82% |
| 21 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 81% |
| 21 Sept, 01:48 UTC | 79% |
| 21 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 79% |
| 21 Sept, 00:38 UTC | 78% |
| 20 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 79% |
| 20 Sept, 21:07 UTC | 78% |
| 20 Sept, 20:54 UTC | 79% |
| 20 Sept, 20:03 UTC | 79% |
| 20 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 80% |
| 20 Sept, 18:52 UTC | 79% |
| 20 Sept, 17:29 UTC | 79% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 75% |
| 20 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 77% |
| 20 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 75% |
| 20 Sept, 14:41 UTC | 80% |
| 20 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 78% |
| 20 Sept, 13:33 UTC | 78% |
| 20 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 77% |
| 20 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 78% |
| 20 Sept, 10:56 UTC | 76% |
| 20 Sept, 10:08 UTC | 76% |
| 20 Sept, 09:41 UTC | 77% |
| 20 Sept, 07:15 UTC | 78% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if no US-initiated air or surface-to-surface strike hits Iranian land territory by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on September 30. It resolves to "No" if such a qualifying military action occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline as being in US time or assume that intercepted missiles or cyber operations count as a strike.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 91%
- No 10%
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