Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
Implied probability 1%−4
24-hour volume$220k
Total volume$614k
Liquidity$38k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Google makes Gemini 4.0 publicly accessible by September 30, 2026, meaning it must be available via open beta or public waitlist signups. Closed betas, private access, or models with different version names like Gemini 3.0 Flash do not count toward a Yes outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%