Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?
Implied probability 81%−1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 81% |
| 29 Sept, 17:33 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 82% |
| 27 Sept, 18:44 UTC | 82% |
| 27 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 82% |
| 27 Sept, 12:39 UTC | 83% |
| 26 Sept, 12:39 UTC | 79% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the Agent Arena Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. Anthropic wins if its model holds the top rank among non-AutoEval models at that specific time. Readers often mistake the news headline about legal issues for the resolution criteria, but only the leaderboard ranking matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 81%
- No 19%
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