Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?
Why it moved: +6 points at 18:25 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: Rubio: Trump Wants Iran Deal, White House Denies Diesel Exp. Ban — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 20:00 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 24% |
| 22 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 18% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an authorized US official publicly announces a clear prohibition on diesel exports before September 30 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if no such official announcement occurs by that deadline or if the proposed measure is only a restriction rather than a full ban. Readers often mistake news reports of potential bans or informal statements for the required official declaration.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 14%
- No 86%
Trade this market on Polymarket →