Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 8?
Why it moved: +19 points at 13:26 UTC, after Deutsche Welle: China's Golden Week reveals cautious consumer spending despite travel surge — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 50% |
| 7 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 50% |
| 7 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 48% |
| 7 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 48% |
| 7 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 28% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on October 8, 2026. The outcome depends on whether that specific daily maximum is 29°C or higher for a 'Yes' result, or lower for a 'No'. Readers often mistake the linked news story about visitor numbers for the actual data source, but only the official temperature record from the Observatory counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 50%
- No 51%
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