Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 23, 2026?
Implied probability 4%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves23 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 20:20 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 4% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile at any location within Moscow on September 23, 2026, according to Moscow time. The outcome depends on the actual execution of a qualifying military action, not just threats or authorizations. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the day in their local time zone instead of Moscow time.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 97%
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