Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title?
The market favoured Yes at 55% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$90k
Liquidity$3k
Resolved11 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 27 Sept, 04:39 UTC | 100% |
| 27 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 100% |
| 27 Sept, 01:55 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 91% |
| 27 Sept, 00:57 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 68% |
| 26 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 21:41 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Sept, 20:20 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 15:40 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 14:19 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 61% |
| 26 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 06:32 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Sept, 06:25 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Sept, 05:16 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Sept, 04:01 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 50% |
| 26 Sept, 02:32 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Sept, 02:24 UTC | 55% |
| 26 Sept, 01:54 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Sept, 01:04 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 00:56 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 00:25 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 18:22 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 14:46 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 13:18 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Sept, 12:04 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 58% |
| 25 Sept, 10:57 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 52% |
| 25 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 49% |
| 25 Sept, 08:52 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 04:56 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 03:44 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 03:24 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 02:33 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 02:26 UTC | 58% |
| 25 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 01:26 UTC | 52% |
| 25 Sept, 00:59 UTC | 49% |
| 25 Sept, 00:27 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Sept, 21:53 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 20:52 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Sept, 20:10 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 18:56 UTC | 43% |
| 24 Sept, 18:24 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 16:47 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 10:48 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Sept, 09:13 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 60% |
| 24 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 59% |
| 24 Sept, 07:31 UTC | 61% |
| 24 Sept, 07:25 UTC | 57% |
| 24 Sept, 04:17 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 03:52 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 02:44 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 52% |
| 24 Sept, 01:58 UTC | 47% |
| 24 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 00:55 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Sept, 00:16 UTC | 56% |
| 23 Sept, 23:41 UTC | 48% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 49% |
| 23 Sept, 06:28 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Sept, 05:32 UTC | 52% |
| 23 Sept, 05:19 UTC | 53% |
| 23 Sept, 04:54 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Sept, 03:04 UTC | 53% |
| 23 Sept, 02:57 UTC | 55% |
| 23 Sept, 02:26 UTC | 56% |
| 23 Sept, 01:59 UTC | 52% |
| 23 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Sept, 00:47 UTC | 50% |
| 23 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 51% |
| 22 Sept, 23:53 UTC | 51% |
| 22 Sept, 23:28 UTC | 50% |
| 22 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 46% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 52% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 52% |
| 22 Sept, 15:04 UTC | 52% |
| 22 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 52% |
| 22 Sept, 13:15 UTC | 53% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 53% |
| 22 Sept, 11:00 UTC | 53% |
| 22 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 53% |
| 22 Sept, 06:33 UTC | 53% |
| 22 Sept, 06:27 UTC | 53% |
| 22 Sept, 03:27 UTC | 52% |
| 22 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 52% |
| 22 Sept, 02:20 UTC | 51% |
| 22 Sept, 01:47 UTC | 52% |
| 22 Sept, 01:25 UTC | 51% |
| 21 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 53% |
| 21 Sept, 04:50 UTC | 54% |
| 21 Sept, 03:42 UTC | 53% |
| 21 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 54% |
| 21 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 54% |
| 20 Sept, 23:24 UTC | 57% |
What counts
The Yes outcome requires the Cleveland Guardians to finish with the best record in the 2026 American League Central division. The No outcome applies if any other team wins the division or if the season ends without a declared winner. Readers often mistake playoff qualification for winning the division title.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →