Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 13:43 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 12:05 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 05:34 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 04:46 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 03:24 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 02:47 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 01:44 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 01:11 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 00:08 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 23:58 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 23:05 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 22:55 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 19:49 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 17:07 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 16:55 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 14:41 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 13:36 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 13:10 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 12:27 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 11:25 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 10:02 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 08:47 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Sept, 00:10 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Sept, 22:15 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Sept, 22:15 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran and Oman both announce acceptance of a specific agreement managing shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by September 21 at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must clearly confirm that an agreement exists, not just express support for future talks or ongoing negotiations. Readers often mistake general diplomatic progress or postponed talks for a finalized deal.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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