Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 30% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
This market resolves to Yes if Israel announces its ground forces have left all Lebanese territory by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The Shebaa Farms area counts as Israeli land and does not count toward the withdrawal requirement. Readers often mistake a planned future withdrawal for an actual one, but only a completed action or announcement of completion counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 32%
- No 69%
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