Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?
Why it moved: +4 points at 17:07 UTC, after Hacker News: Gemini 4 Argon — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 71% |
| 13 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 71% |
| 13 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 67% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if gemini-4-argon-high holds the top rank on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 26, 2026. It resolves to No if any other model ranks higher or ties and wins via score or alphabetical order. Readers often mistake the release date of a new model for the resolution deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 71%
- No 30%
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