US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?
Implied probability 10%−1
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$74k
Liquidity$28k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 18% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the United States and Canada jointly announce acceptance of an official agreement that lowers US tariffs on Canadian goods by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must clearly confirm acceptance of a specific deal rather than just expressing support or discussing ongoing negotiations.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 91%
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