Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 1 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 19:17 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 07:37 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 06:05 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 04:13 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 03:42 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Sept, 20:49 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 13:42 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 08:20 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 07:40 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the Agent Arena Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. The outcome is Yes if OpenAI owns the model ranked first among those not marked “AutoEval” at that time. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the month rather than the specific check time, or they overlook that AutoEval models are excluded from the ranking.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 92%
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