Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 8?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 7 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 10% |
| 7 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 8% |
| 6 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves based on the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on October 8, 2026. The outcome depends on whether that specific value falls within the range defined by the 'Yes' or 'No' options in the question. Readers often mistake the linked news story about visitor numbers for the relevant data source, but only the official temperature record from the Hong Kong Observatory counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%
Trade this market on Polymarket →