Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?
Implied probability 100%+51
24-hour volume$155k
Total volume$170k
Liquidity$653k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 42% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile at Iraq between now and September 30, 2026. The action must be explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory; attacks by proxy forces do not count. Readers often mistake threats, cyber operations, or intercepted munitions for qualifying events, but only executed strikes against Iraqi territory matter.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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