Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)
Implied probability 41%−2
24-hour volume$207k
Total volume$200k
Liquidity$1.6M
Resolves10 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 41% |
| 10 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 41% |
| 10 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 40% |
| 10 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 42% |
| 10 Oct, 04:40 UTC | 43% |
| 10 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 11:01 UTC | 43% |
| 9 Oct, 04:00 UTC | 44% |
| 9 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 43% |
| 8 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 43% |
| 7 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 46% |
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What counts
Arsenal FC wins if they beat Leeds United by two goals or more in the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Leeds United FC wins if Arsenal does not achieve that margin of victory. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but the market relies on the official final score from premierleague.com, not live updates or other sports sites.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Arsenal FC 41%
- Leeds United FC 60%
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