Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Implied probability 26%−1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$109k
Liquidity$62k
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 26% |
| 23 Sept, 21:43 UTC | 26% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 27% |
| 23 Sept, 13:07 UTC | 28% |
| 23 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 28% |
| 23 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Sept, 06:07 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 30% |
| 23 Sept, 05:07 UTC | 30% |
| 23 Sept, 04:54 UTC | 31% |
| 23 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 31% |
| 23 Sept, 03:43 UTC | 31% |
| 23 Sept, 03:04 UTC | 31% |
| 23 Sept, 02:57 UTC | 32% |
| 23 Sept, 02:05 UTC | 32% |
| 23 Sept, 01:59 UTC | 34% |
| 23 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 26% |
| 22 Sept, 23:34 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Sept, 22:41 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins or if the race remains uncalled by all resolution sources until official certification.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 26%
- No 75%
Trade this market on Polymarket →