EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?
The market favoured Yes at 74% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$16k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 13 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 100% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an EU member state’s government officially blames Russia for a physical sabotage attack on its own soil before October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if no such official attribution occurs by that deadline, or if the claim comes from anonymous sources, other countries, or international bodies like NATO.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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