Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in October 2026?
Implied probability 29%+7
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$27k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 29% |
| 13 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 15% |
| 12 Oct, 23:01 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 13% |
| 12 Oct, 21:26 UTC | 10% |
| 12 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 36% |
| 12 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Oct, 13:02 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 33% |
| 12 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 36% |
| 12 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 32% |
| 12 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 32% |
| 12 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 18% |
| 12 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 20% |
| 12 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 39% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if North Korea conducts exactly two qualifying missile tests during October 2026. A test counts only on the calendar day it begins, even if it spans multiple days. Readers often mistake non-ballistic launches like rocket artillery for valid tests or ignore the specific start date rule.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 29%
- No 71%
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